COVID-19 Trends of the Week: May 18-22

Recovery takes shape. How apartment renters are paying the bill. Why al fresco dining is the flavor of the summer. These are the trends that shaped coronavirus coverage this week.

Economists and commercial real estate prognosticators are spending a lot of time talking about the shape of the economic and real estate recovery. Will it resemble a V (quick down and up), a U (prolonged slump and a fairly swift comeback) or a W (fits and starts)? The stock market may be pricing in a V-shape, but the turning point is not yet in sight for other key indicators.

Second quarter will be tough, but recovery is next, hopefully.

With transaction volume falling dramatically in April, the second quarter of 2020 is expected to be a full quarter of pain for the economy and commercial real estate. But, there is a growing consensus that a U-shaped recovery will begin in the third or fourth quarter, followed by moderate growth in 2021 and stronger growth in 2022. Recovery will be accelerated by all the dry powder that is still eager to invest in the asset class once the bottom is more clear.  

Commercial Real Estate Transactions in U.S. Plunged 71% in April

ULI Forecasts Strong CRE Growth to Return in 2022
Commercial Property Executive

Why Experts See Huge Economic Dropoff From Pandemic, Then Rapid Recovery

Types of Economic Recoveries: A Real Estate Investor’s Guide 
Motley Fool

Multifamily rent collections continue to defy employment statistics.

Despite an unemployment rate of nearly 15 percent, most renters are meeting their monthly obligations. According to the National Multifamily Housing Council, 88 percent of the renters that they track paid May rent by the second week of the month. One reason for that is the extra $600 those collecting unemployment benefits will receive through the end of July. And if Democrats have their way, that boost would be extended in the next stimulus package. 

Why Multifamily Rents are Holding Up Better than Expected
National Real Estate Investor

Nearly 88 Percent of Renters Have Paid Rent This Month
Multi-Housing News

Seven Proven Tactics to Maximize Rent Collections During a Crisis

Rent Collection For Mid-Market Multifamily Looks Solid For Spring, But Summer Could Be Another Story

Apartment REITs: No Rent Strike, But Fears Of Urban Exodus
Seeking Alpha

Outdoor dining could give struggling restaurants a lifeline.

New York City, San Jose and Cincinnati are among the cities that are looking to give restaurant tenants more access to sidewalks and streets so they can host guests outdoors. Al fresco dining is considered safer than indoor eating these days if tables are kept at least six feet apart. With summer about to kick off, however, many states are still limiting eateries to takeout service. Chicago’s outdoor restaurants, for example, will begin operating in the third phase of reopening, which begins May 29. New York City restaurants will also allow restaurant service in phase three, but there is no date for that yet.

Al Fresco Dining Is the Restaurant Industry’s Best Hope

What Will Happen to Boston Offices If We All Work from Home Forever?

City Mulls Plan to Give Restaurants More Street Space
Real Estate Weekly

What Restaurants Will Actually Be Like in a Post-COVID-19 World, According to CEOs and Food Experts
Fast Company