Economy Watch: Most State Economies Improved Over Last Three Months

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's latest coincident indexes point to strong economic conditions in most of the 50 states.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released its coincident indexes for the 50 states for November 2017, finding that over the past three months, the indexes increased in 43 states and decreased in seven. In the past month, the indexes increased in 35 states, decreased in 11, and remained stable in four.

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are: nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index.

The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product, so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index rose 0.7 percent over the past three months and 0.2 percent in November, pointing to further growth nationwide.